Good morning! Mortgage rates are holding right around 6.75% on the 30-year conventional today, and this week's small dose of good news — hopes for a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal and a softer-than-expected jobs print — is still in the driver's seat. The real test comes tomorrow morning, when the government's official July jobs report lands. Here's what's happening and what it means for you.
A Strait of Hormuz deal looks close. Iran and Oman have reportedly finalized a draft agreement on a shipping route through the strait, now waiting on final sign-off from Iran's leadership. Oil prices are down about 10% this week on the news, which helps keep inflation worries — and rates — in check.
Private-sector hiring came in weak. July's ADP jobs report showed just 44,000 new private jobs, well below the 70,000 expected and the weakest reading since January. Softer job growth tends to be good news for rates.
A note on market risk. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon flagged that borrowing (leverage) across financial markets is at record levels, cautioning that it raises the odds of a sudden market swing. Not a rate story directly, but a good reminder that markets can move fast.
| Loan Type | Rate | Today's Move |
| 30-Year Conventional | 6.75% | Unchanged |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.29% | Unchanged |
| FHA 30-Year | 6.31% | +0.02 |
| VA 30-Year | 6.32% | +0.01 |
Compared to last week, rates are modestly improved thanks to this week's Hormuz deal optimism and softer labor data — even though today's bond pricing is flat to a touch weaker on the day itself.
This morning's data releases — weekly jobless claims (199,000, better than expected) and second-quarter productivity (up a strong 1.4%) — both came in favorable, pointing to a labor market that's cooling gently rather than cracking.
Tomorrow, Friday, is the big one: the official July jobs report drops at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect about 80,000 new jobs, up from June's 57,000. A weak number would likely extend this week's rate improvement; a strong beat could reverse it quickly.
Rates have quietly gotten a little friendlier this week — the 30-year fixed is sitting near 6.75%, helped along by hopes for a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal and a weaker-than-expected jobs report. It's not a dramatic swing, but if you've been sitting on the fence, this is a decent window. Just know that tomorrow's official jobs report could either stretch this relief further or close the door on it, so it's worth locking in a conversation with your loan officer before the weekend.
Your buyers caught a bit of a break this week. Oil prices dropped and job growth data came in soft, which nudged mortgage rates down off recent highs. If you've got clients hesitating on an offer, this is worth mentioning — but also worth being honest that tomorrow's jobs report is the swing factor for whether this improvement holds through the weekend or fades.
Bond pricing eased off slightly today even as the broader week has been rate-friendly on Hormuz de-escalation and a soft ADP print. Worth centering your lock/float conversations around tomorrow morning's 8:30 AM jobs report — forecast at +80,000 versus last month's +57,000. A beat or a miss there is the clearest near-term risk to today's pricing.
